Travel'20 beyond Covid'19

“If you don’t come out of the Lockdown with new skills, more knowledge, better Health & Fitness – You Never Lacked Time, You Lacked Discipline” 

...was a WhatsApp message that has shaken me on 6^th (April’20) morning.

This very Bold statement, queries from many others (who see a travel expert in me) & numerous discussions on various social platforms, prompted me to pen down this Blog after a gap of 2 years. My last one was in March’18, after my visit to NE in Dec’2017 - The Great Seven Sisters Run.

To begin with, let me clarify – Am not a Travel Expert but, to me, it’s now been much more than a decade - I transformed from a Tourist to a Traveler & probably now, to an avid one. India is Beautiful, one life is not enough to explore it in toto, Incredible India – is the theme which I always try to promote, supports domestic tourism through various social platforms & whatever means without any direct/indirect commercial interests. 

Yes, my way is Highway, my domestic highways, exploring variety of cultures, festivals, food, environments...BY ROAD & capturing my own Indian terrains in camera & showcasing it's beauty to entire World, yes, my way...

No, am not an economist also but am trying here to relate some stats, which I googled in last few days (courtesy respective owners, due credits have also been given to them at the end of this blog), with my thoughts & I assume no liability for the accuracy & authenticity of data shared here.

And Yes, am not in politics as well. As they say, it's always a choice between bad & worse, barring exceptions and I really appreciate those ones who are daring to bring in some changes beyond politics with their Bold decisions.   

May pls click here to pledge for Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat mission

(this blog is better visible on a large screen)

DOES TRAVEL MEANS HERE -

We, India, a Nation who contributes ~18% to World's Population with unique head count of ~1.38 billion,  with a median age of 28.4 years, do we need to travel towards -

• 2 Child Policy has to be in place now whereas the fertility rate has already reached 2.3 per woman - shouldn't be a tough task now. But, it indeed is, isn't it ? Currently, we are adding 1 million children every 20 days
• Rationalization of Income Tax. Don't want us to enter into a debate & stats of ~50 Cr workforce here, more than 60% are agriculturalists who are assumed to be doing more important jobs that others & would continue to be un-taxed, majority of the rest don't even earn adequate amounts to get taxed and finally, ~5 Cr Indians contribute to second biggest source of Income to Union Govt of India.  
• Expenditure on Public Health services. Currently, due to our known relationships with neighboring countries, our % GDP spend on Health services is almost half of our Defense expenses. Well understood but with <1 Bed per 1,000 people & ~5 ICU beds per 1,00,000 inhabitants, we really lack on medical facilities and the current prevailing scenario (Covid'19) has proved it. Are you saying - private sectors, religious institutes, other charitable bodies etc should pitch-in here, figures crossed. 

Probably, now is the time to rephrase Roti, Kapda aur Makkan (Bread, Cloths & Home) to Roti, Swasthay & Makaan (Bread, Health & Home)

Anyways, as stated above & reiterating again, am not a economist nor associated with any political party, and a roadie in me would focus here on our core subject - Travel & Tourism as this sector also contributes significantly to GDP of any country.  

TRAVEL MEANS HERE, ACTUALLY -

First of all, some pleasant facts - 

• 50 million Indians traveled abroad in 2019, up from 23 million in 2017
• In 2017, The country welcomed over 10 million foreign tourists, generating foreign exchange earning of over 27.31 billion USDs.
• Incredible India 2.0 campaign was launched in September 2017. 
• In September 2018, the Indian government launched the "Incredible India Mobile App’ to assist the traveler to India and showcase major experiences for travelling.
• In 2018, this sector accounted for 10.5% of global GDP & employed 319 million which means 10% of the world’s total employment.
• According to WTTC, India ranked 3rd among 185 countries in terms of travel & tourism’s total contribution to GDP in 2018. 
• India's Tourism Revenue reached 3 USD bn in Feb 2020, The data reached an all-time high of 3,177 USD mn in Dec 2019 and a record low of 185 USD mn in Jun 2002.
• A five-year tax holiday has been offered for 2, 3- and 4-star category hotels located around UNESCO World Heritage Sites (except Delhi and Mumbai). 
• Under Union Budget 2019-20, government introduced a Tax Refund for Tourists (TRT)  scheme like in countries such as Singapore to encourage tourists to spend more in India and boost tourism        
• Hotel & Tourism sector has received cumulative FDI inflows of US$ 12.96 billion between April 2000 and June 2019. 
• In Independence speech from Red Fort, Aug'19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to visit 15 domestic tourist destinations in India by 2022 to promote tourism. 
• India was ranked 34th in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019 published by the World Economic Forum. 
• As of 2019, 4.2 crore jobs were created in the tourism sector in India which was 8.1 per cent of total employment in the country. 
• Under the Swadesh Darshan Scheme 77 projects have been sanctioned of worth Rs 6,035.70 crore (US$ 863.60 million). During 2019-20, an additional fund Rs 1,854.67 crore (US$ 269.22 million) is sanctioned for new projects under the same (Swadesh Darshan) scheme.
• Ministry of Tourism sanctioned 18 projects covering all the North Eastern States for Rs 1,456 crore (US$ 211.35 million) for development and promotion of tourism in the North Eastern Region under the Swadesh Darshan and PRASHAD Schemes.
• The launch of several branding and marketing initiatives by the Government of India such as "incredible India" and "Atithi Devo Bhava" has provided a focused impetus to growth. 
• Ministry of Tourism launches Audio Guide facility App called Audio Odigos for 12 sites of India (including iconic sites).
• In September 2019, Japan joins a band  of Asian countries, including Taiwan and Korea among others to enter into the Indian tourism market

                                           (just to update, you can click on any hyperlinks to get to know more details)

                  HOW BIG THIS INDUSTRY IS ?

The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP in India in 2017 was USD 91.27 billion 

In 2017, the direct contribution of travel and tourism sector to India's GDP was over 91 billion U.S. dollars. This was estimated to increase to 98 billion U.S. dollars in 2018 and forecast to be 194 billion U.S. dollars by 2028. India had the 2nd highest tourism GDP contribution in Asia Pacific in 2017.

Most of the tourism revenue in India comes from foreign tourists. India has witnessed an exponential rise in foreign exchange earnings since 2000, along with an increased inflow of foreign tourists into the country. The Government of India has set a target of 20 million foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) by 2020 and double the foreign exchange earnings as well.

Projected 2028 (pre-Covid) : USD 194.69 Billion

Projected (post Covid) ?

The Total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP in India in 2018 was USD 247 billion.

Even though India is not among the top ten countries with the highest foreign tourism revenue, it is not too far behind. In recent years, the government has implemented new visa policies and advertised niche tourism products to boost tourism. 

Projected 2029 (pre-Covid) : USD 512 Billion

Projected (post Covid) ?

The number of Indian Nationals departures (International) from India in 2018 : 26.3 million, significantly up from 4.42 m in 2000

Projected (post Covid) ?

Some unpleasant facts - 

• Would all these (above mentioned) plans & figures for future growths still hold true ? 
• Would you still like to venture out (read abroad) in next 6-12 months ?
• Would they (read foreigners) like to visit India in next many months ?
• The answer to all above Qs can be yes, but what about these 2 following predictions, globally & India specific.
• Predicted employment loss in Travel & Tourism Industry due to coronavirus pandemic, worldwide in 2020, is more than 75m which includes 48.7m from Asia Pacific itself.
• 'India's tourism sector may lose Rs 5 lakh cr, 4-5 cr jobs could be cut due to COVID-19'
• Share of India in global International Tourists arrival is just 1.24%

A feeble minded in me is forcing me to write - No, with lacs of direct/in-direct Job loss, retrenchments, salary cuts, establishment closures or scaling down the volumes of Business and overall loss to govt's exchequer, things are not gonna be as visualized & planned. 

To me, the savior for us as a country is - my favorite topic - Domestic Travel & Tourism.   

                           (finished reading till now, Kudos, you would now love to read the following & can relate well)

Now, let's have a look at some in-house data - 

In 2018, Number of domestic tourists visits to all states/UTs stands at 1854.9 millions, a growth of 11.9% over previous year.

As understood by me, Tamilnadu tops the list among all Indian states in terms of visits by domestic tourists followed by UP & Karnataka, with almost 50% share.

Most of the domestic travelers traveled in Southern, Western & Central parts of the country & surprisingly, Himalayan ranges couldn't attract them. 

Moreover, among other fews, missing Kerala in this list is astonishing to me. 

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Overall, in 2018, 28.87 million foreign tourists visited various Indian states, again Tamilnadu, UP & Maharashtra bagged a market share of 50%+. 

Kerala can be seen here with a minuscule share of just 3.8% but Northern & Eastern Himalayan ranges are a total miss. 

Goa, is another surprise to me at #10

There has been a paradigm shift in the concept of domestic tourism over time with the growing middle-class and its disposable incomes which is visible in this graph, from 220m in 2000 to 1855m in 2018. Although spending comes primarily from International tourism, the domestic expenditure for this sector was projected to have a linear growth until 2028. Hence, domestic tourism plays a crucial role in the overall development of the industry.

With the emergence of low cost airlines, longest rail network in the world, several tour operators, online booking portals cum aggregators, urge for road trips, inflation free Vacation ownership companies,  clubbed with more disposable incomes, the cost of domestic tourism is becoming more affordable these days.

Social status, and not the drive to explore, is what makes most Indians travel (ET)

This is an interesting survey which reveals - Indians also seem most tempted by nostalgia as 80 percent of those surveyed travel to 'rediscover past good times', 79 percent 'to experience a simpler lifestyle' and 76 percent 'to get away from the demands at home', while for 75 percent its about 'going to places where their friends have not been to.

Plus, this also gets fueled by on-net socially active people, who like/prefer to travel not only to show off but also the comfort & ease of planning, information, maps, nearby places, bookings, payments etc and this population has grown very rapidly in India & would continue to grow. 

As on 31.12.2018, India had ~2000 approved Hotels (all categories) with over One Lac rooms. The major chunk of rooms lies with 350+ five star+ hotels with cumulative rooms inventory of 60,000+ rooms.

In fiscal year 2019, the occupancy rate of hotels in India was 66.7 percent, up by one percent from the previous year. Among the various types of hotels, think - riding on online aggregators, 4-star hotels had the highest occupancy at 67.5 percent, making it the highest in this decade. Though, the occupancy trends are inline with global standards but still, we have sufficient room nights available with us at India (another reason to go domestic).  

International flyers to Destination 2030

Destination 2030 is a comprehensive index based on the evaluation of more than 75 indicators in 50 global markets, and it addresses the question of what makes a city ready for Travel & Tourism growth. This research takes an approach of assessing ‘readiness’, through which it aims to help city governments and tourism bodies better understand how well cities are positioned for future growth, while identifying gaps and opportunities that should be considered in future tourism strategy planning.

WTTC and JLL have teamed up to launch the first assessment of cities’ readiness for tourism growth, through the development of a unique methodology to evaluate and deliver on solutions to foster sustainable growth in tourism activity. 

Interestingly, we have 2 Metro cities in this list - Delhi & Mumbai & these 2 were gateway to 44%+ foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) in 2018. Delhi accounted for 28.83% & Mumbai welcomed 15.50% FTAs.

Now, look at this study, both our mentioned cities are struggling hard in Low Quartiles, the data is self-explanatory.

Does it mean that we shouldn’t expect high spikes in inflow of FTAs in future, yes, YoY a steady growth should prevail but…

Does it also mean, Domestic Tourism should flourish now on a faster pace?

Not being judgmental, but points to ponder, isn’t it?

No pls, no offence pls, am not at all against International Tourism, both inbound or outbound, but my personal endeavor shall always be to make others explore our own country first - some non-conventional routes, treacherous mountains, high altitude lakes, frozen rivers & waterfalls, some real crazy terrains, good-to-bad-to-no roads to river beds, mud / slush & water crossings through car and ferries, deep into many popular/less/un-explored - Himalayas, barren lands, sea shores, religious, touristy/non-touristy places etc in almost all Indian states, from Ladakh to Kanyakumari,  Koteshwar to Greater to Little Rann of Kutch to Kolkata, Jaisalmer to Puri, Lahaul-Spiti to Dhanushkodi, Golden Quadrilateral, the lush green north-eastern forests & much much more. 

To sum up, Domestic tourists have always been the driving force behind Indian tourism and hospitality industry. Many travel companies tap in on this potential by offering low fares and budget-friendly tour packages, especially for air-travel. Currently, the country has over 100+ functional airports and many low-cost airline operators have dominated the domestic aviation industry. India is expected to become the third-largest aviation market by 2024, behind China and the United States.

Even the hospitality industry in India has seen strong and consistent growth over recent years.  In 2016, the average daily rate of Indian hotels was at its lowest in a decade at around 85 U.S. dollars, was 89 U.S. dollars in fiscal year 2019. The same average for the 5-star hotel was the highest at 159 U.S. dollars that same year.

So for those, the avg cost of room night of 89 USDs seems reasonably high in a 4+ star rated Hotel (leave aside non-traditional accommodations like home-stays, hostels, serviced apartments, Airbnb and OYO Rooms etc which I personally don’t prefer, no offense to anyone, one may like to differ), inflation free Vacation Ownership or Time Share is the answer.

The leader in this space is Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd popularly known as Club Mahindra who are well known for their exclusive, exotic & various theme based locations (ranging from beaches to hills, from deserts to Jungles, romance to adventures), superb Hospitality, in-house 200+ activities, family togetherness coupled with comfortable & luxurious family tourism across all their 100+ resorts across the country.

Travel’20 beyond Covid’19 is gonna be a Challenging journey. One’s desire to travel & explore would never die and let’s do our bit by promoting domestic tourism.  

Post this epidemic, adhering to Govt’s advisories, travel, travel hard, preferably drive down to your nearby domestic locations, Yes Drive, drive with your family, friends, near & dears, DRIVE, nothing is as Rich, nothing is more Real !!!

India shall surely Bounce Back!!! 

Hope, you enjoyed this Blog, may click on various links to check authenticity of data/facts shared in this write-up.

If you wish to see my Roadographs from every nook & corner of India - pls share your honest feedback (love to have more from critics) on this blog, shall motivate me to take you on a virtual tour of India thru my next Blog.

Stay Safe, Keep travelling & sharing, 

Warm Regards 
The Roadographer (ajay_jagga@yahoo.com)
sms texts (only) +91-921-222-1234


Yes, am an Artist - the Road is my Canvas and my Car is my Brush.
To me, Driving is a Prayer, Motoring & Roadography - another way of Worship.

and I strongly believe in these, Nothing is As Rich, Nothing is more Real...

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This Blog's input courtesy -

https://www.statista.com/  (major contributions)

https://www.wttc.org/

www.tourism.gov.in

https://www.ibef.org

References: Media Reports, Ministry of Tourism, Govt of India, Press Releases, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Press Information Bureau (PIB), Union Budget 2019-20

tough days ahead, worst hit shall be T&T